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AS Salé vs Ittifaq Marrakech — Botola 2 2025

AS Salé
AS Salé
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Ittifaq Marrakech
Ittifaq Marrakech
11/11/2023Botola 2Botola 2 · Round 10Stade Boubker Ammar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

AS Salé43%
×Draw30%
Ittifaq Marrakech27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AS Salé
1.16
Ittifaq Marrakech
0.84

AS Salé creates 38% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 30 away

creates per match

AS Salé
1.11
Ittifaq Marrakech
0.57

allows per match

AS Salé
1.12
Ittifaq Marrakech
1.20

finishing

AS Salé+0.00on par
Ittifaq Marrakech+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AS Salé ↓

Ittifaq Marrakech →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

AS Salé or draw
73%
AS Salé or Ittifaq Marrakech
70%
Draw or Ittifaq Marrakech
57%

Winning margin

AS Salé wins by 2+
18%
Ittifaq Marrakech wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

AS Salé 1+ goals
69%
AS Salé 2+ goals
32%
AS Salé 3+ goals
11%
Ittifaq Marrakech 1+ goals
57%
Ittifaq Marrakech 2+ goals
21%
Ittifaq Marrakech 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

AS Salé (draw refunded)
62%
Ittifaq Marrakech (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AS Salé at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.12 · 90 matches

Ittifaq Marrakech away — creates 0.57, concedes 1.20 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AS Salé attack 1.11 + Ittifaq Marrakech defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.16

Ittifaq Marrakech attack 0.57 + AS Salé defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

AS Salé scores more
43%
level
30%
Ittifaq Marrakech scores more
27%

AS Salé at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "AS Salé will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: AS Salé vs Ittifaq Marrakech

AS Salé and Ittifaq Marrakech drew 2-2 in Botola 2 on November 11, 2023.

The match was played at Stade Boubker Ammar in Salé.