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AS Salé vs Difaa EL Jadida — Botola 2 2025

AS Salé
AS Salé
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Difaa EL Jadida
Difaa EL Jadida
11/25/2023Botola 2Botola 2 · Round 12Stade Boubker Ammar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

AS Salé32%
×Draw32%
Difaa EL Jadida36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AS Salé
0.89
Difaa EL Jadida
0.96

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 90 home / 15 away

creates per match

AS Salé
1.11
Difaa EL Jadida
0.80

allows per match

AS Salé
1.12
Difaa EL Jadida
0.67

finishing

AS Salé+0.00on par
Difaa EL Jadida+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Under
  • Under72
  • Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AS Salé ↓

Difaa EL Jadida →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–115%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–06%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
28%72%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

AS Salé or draw
64%
AS Salé or Difaa EL Jadida
68%
Draw or Difaa EL Jadida
68%

Winning margin

AS Salé wins by 2+
11%
Difaa EL Jadida wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

AS Salé 1+ goals
59%
AS Salé 2+ goals
22%
AS Salé 3+ goals
6%
Difaa EL Jadida 1+ goals
62%
Difaa EL Jadida 2+ goals
25%
Difaa EL Jadida 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

AS Salé (draw refunded)
47%
Difaa EL Jadida (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AS Salé at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.12 · 90 matches

Difaa EL Jadida away — creates 0.80, concedes 0.67 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AS Salé attack 1.11 + Difaa EL Jadida defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.89

Difaa EL Jadida attack 0.80 + AS Salé defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

AS Salé scores more
32%
level
32%
Difaa EL Jadida scores more
36%

Difaa EL Jadida at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Difaa EL Jadida will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: AS Salé vs Difaa EL Jadida

Difaa EL Jadida beat AS Salé 3-2 in Botola 2 on November 25, 2023.

The match was played at Stade Boubker Ammar in Salé.