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AS Salé vs CODM Meknès — Botola 2 2025

AS Salé
AS Salé
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
CODM Meknès
CODM Meknès
10/14/2023Botola 2Botola 2 · Round 6Stade Boubker Ammar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

AS Salé34%
×Draw31%
CODM Meknès36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AS Salé
0.99
CODM Meknès
1.03

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 90 home / 15 away

creates per match

AS Salé
1.11
CODM Meknès
0.93

allows per match

AS Salé
1.12
CODM Meknès
0.87

finishing

AS Salé+0.00on par
CODM Meknès+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AS Salé ↓

CODM Meknès →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–114%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–114%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

AS Salé or draw
64%
AS Salé or CODM Meknès
69%
Draw or CODM Meknès
66%

Winning margin

AS Salé wins by 2+
13%
CODM Meknès wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

AS Salé 1+ goals
63%
AS Salé 2+ goals
26%
AS Salé 3+ goals
8%
CODM Meknès 1+ goals
64%
CODM Meknès 2+ goals
28%
CODM Meknès 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

AS Salé (draw refunded)
48%
CODM Meknès (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AS Salé at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.12 · 90 matches

CODM Meknès away — creates 0.93, concedes 0.87 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AS Salé attack 1.11 + CODM Meknès defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.99

CODM Meknès attack 0.93 + AS Salé defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

AS Salé scores more
34%
level
31%
CODM Meknès scores more
36%

CODM Meknès at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "CODM Meknès will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: AS Salé vs CODM Meknès

CODM Meknès beat AS Salé 2-0 in Botola 2 on October 14, 2023.

The match was played at Stade Boubker Ammar in Salé.