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AS Salé vs Chabab Mohammédia — Botola 2 2025

AS Salé
AS Salé
FT
1 – 0
Chabab Mohammédia
Chabab Mohammédia
12/1/2019Botola 2Botola 2 · Round 10Stade Boubker Ammar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

AS Salé35%
×Draw31%
Chabab Mohammédia34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AS Salé
0.99
Chabab Mohammédia
0.96

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 90 home / 30 away

creates per match

AS Salé
1.11
Chabab Mohammédia
0.80

allows per match

AS Salé
1.12
Chabab Mohammédia
0.87

finishing

AS Salé+0.00on par
Chabab Mohammédia+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AS Salé ↓

Chabab Mohammédia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–114%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–014%
1–114%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

AS Salé or draw
66%
AS Salé or Chabab Mohammédia
69%
Draw or Chabab Mohammédia
65%

Winning margin

AS Salé wins by 2+
13%
Chabab Mohammédia wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

AS Salé 1+ goals
63%
AS Salé 2+ goals
26%
AS Salé 3+ goals
8%
Chabab Mohammédia 1+ goals
62%
Chabab Mohammédia 2+ goals
25%
Chabab Mohammédia 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

AS Salé (draw refunded)
51%
Chabab Mohammédia (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AS Salé at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.12 · 90 matches

Chabab Mohammédia away — creates 0.80, concedes 0.87 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AS Salé attack 1.11 + Chabab Mohammédia defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.99

Chabab Mohammédia attack 0.80 + AS Salé defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

AS Salé scores more
35%
level
31%
Chabab Mohammédia scores more
34%

AS Salé at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "AS Salé will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Botola 2: AS Salé 1–0 Chabab Mohammédia

AS Salé beat Chabab Mohammédia 1-0 in Botola 2 on December 1, 2019.

The match was played at Stade Boubker Ammar in Salé.