AS Roma 2–1 Sampdoria: Result & Stats | Serie A

AS Roma

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Sampdoria

6/24/2020

Serie A · Round 27Stadio Olimpico

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 94+ matches

AS Roma56%

×Draw23%

Sampdoria21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AS RomaExpected goals in this matchSampdoria

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.81

1.02

AS Roma

1.81

Sampdoria

1.02

AS Roma creates 77% more chances

Season form · 130 home / 94 away

1.82

creates per match

1.10

0.95

allows per match

1.81

creates per match

AS Roma

1.82

Sampdoria

1.10

allows per match

AS Roma

0.95

Sampdoria

1.81

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

AS Roma+0.00on par

Sampdoria+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AS Roma ↓

Sampdoria →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

AS Roma or draw

79%

AS Roma or Sampdoria

77%

Draw or Sampdoria

44%

Winning margin

AS Roma wins by 2+

32%

Sampdoria wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

AS Roma 1+ goals

84%

AS Roma 2+ goals

54%

AS Roma 3+ goals

27%

Sampdoria 1+ goals

64%

Sampdoria 2+ goals

27%

Sampdoria 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

AS Roma (draw refunded)

72%

Sampdoria (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AS Roma at home — creates 1.82, concedes 0.95 · 130 matches

Sampdoria away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.81 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AS Roma attack 1.82 + Sampdoria defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.81

Sampdoria attack 1.10 + AS Roma defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

AS Roma scores more

56%

level

23%

Sampdoria scores more

21%

AS Roma at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "AS Roma will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff