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AS Roma vs Red Bull Salzburg — UEFA Europa League 2026

AS Roma
AS Roma
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Red Bull Salzburg
Red Bull Salzburg
2/23/2023UEFA Europa LeagueUEFA Europa League · Knockout Round Play-offsStadio Olimpico

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

AS Roma64%
×Draw20%
Red Bull Salzburg17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AS Roma
2.19
Red Bull Salzburg
1.02

AS Roma creates 115% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 12 away

creates per match

AS Roma
2.05
Red Bull Salzburg
1.33

allows per match

AS Roma
0.71
Red Bull Salzburg
2.33

finishing

AS Roma+0.00on par
Red Bull Salzburg+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AS Roma ↓

Red Bull Salzburg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

AS Roma or draw
83%
AS Roma or Red Bull Salzburg
80%
Draw or Red Bull Salzburg
36%

Winning margin

AS Roma wins by 2+
40%
Red Bull Salzburg wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

AS Roma 1+ goals
89%
AS Roma 2+ goals
64%
AS Roma 3+ goals
37%
Red Bull Salzburg 1+ goals
64%
Red Bull Salzburg 2+ goals
27%
Red Bull Salzburg 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

AS Roma (draw refunded)
79%
Red Bull Salzburg (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AS Roma at home — creates 2.05, concedes 0.71 · 21 matches

Red Bull Salzburg away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.33 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AS Roma attack 2.05 + Red Bull Salzburg defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.19

Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.33 + AS Roma defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

AS Roma scores more
64%
level
20%
Red Bull Salzburg scores more
17%

AS Roma at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "AS Roma will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UEFA Europa League: AS Roma 2–0 Red Bull Salzburg

AS Roma beat Red Bull Salzburg 2-0 in UEFA Europa League on February 23, 2023.

The match was played at Stadio Olimpico in Roma.