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AS Roma vs Napoli — Serie A 2026

AS Roma
AS Roma
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Napoli
Napoli
V. Osimhen 80'
10/23/2022Serie ASerie A · Round 11Stadio Olimpico

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 23+ matches

AS Roma38%
×Draw28%
Napoli34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AS Roma
1.22
Napoli
1.15

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 23 home / 30 away

creates per match

AS Roma
1.57
Napoli
1.42

allows per match

AS Roma
0.87
Napoli
0.87

finishing

AS Roma+0.26scores more
Napoli+0.21scores more

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AS Roma ↓

Napoli →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

AS Roma or draw
66%
AS Roma or Napoli
72%
Draw or Napoli
62%

Winning margin

AS Roma wins by 2+
16%
Napoli wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

AS Roma 1+ goals
70%
AS Roma 2+ goals
34%
AS Roma 3+ goals
12%
Napoli 1+ goals
68%
Napoli 2+ goals
32%
Napoli 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

AS Roma (draw refunded)
52%
Napoli (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AS Roma at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.87 · 23 matches

Napoli away — creates 1.42, concedes 0.87 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AS Roma attack 1.57 + Napoli defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.22

Napoli attack 1.42 + AS Roma defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

AS Roma scores more
38%
level
28%
Napoli scores more
34%

AS Roma at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "AS Roma will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21
M. PolitanoNapoliNapoli · F
7.5

Match Events

22'
Chris Smalling
39'
Tanguy NdombéléPenalty cancelled
45+2'
Hirving Lozano
47'
Tanguy Ndombélé
51'
Bryan Cristante
57'
E. Elmas← T. Ndombélé
64'
A. Belotti← T. Abraham
74'
Roger Ibañez
75'
M. Politano← H. Lozano
75'
G. Gaetano← P. Zieliński
78'
Mathías Olivera
79'
Stanislav Lobotka
80'
V. Osimhen↳ M. Politano
82'
M. Viña← R. Karsdorp
82'
N. Matić← M. Camara
82'
S. El Shaarawy← G. Mancini
85'
E. Shomurodov← L. Spinazzola

Possession

41%AS

Shots

6AS

Pass accuracy

47%AS

Statistics

ASNapoli
Overview
41%Possession59%
6Total Shots12
3Corners4
14Fouls12
Shots
6Total Shots12
0On Target5
3Off Target4
3Blocked3
2Inside Box8
4Outside Box4
Passing
41%Possession59%
357Total Passes529
269Accurate Passes453
75%Pass Accuracy86%
Goalkeeping
4Saves0
Discipline
14Fouls12
3Yellow Cards4
3Offsides0

AS Roma 0 – 1 Napoli

Napoli beat AS Roma 1-0 in Serie A on October 23, 2022.

Goals: V. Osimhen (80').

Napoli controlled possession (59%) and registered 12 shots to 6.

The match was played at Stadio Olimpico in Roma.