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AS Roma vs Napoli — Serie A 2026

AS Roma
AS Roma
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Napoli
Napoli
10/24/2021Serie ASerie A · Round 9Stadio Olimpico

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 23+ matches

AS Roma39%
×Draw28%
Napoli33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AS Roma
1.23
Napoli
1.11

AS Roma creates 11% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 27 away

creates per match

AS Roma
1.57
Napoli
1.35

allows per match

AS Roma
0.87
Napoli
0.88

finishing

AS Roma+0.26scores more
Napoli+0.17scores more

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AS Roma ↓

Napoli →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

AS Roma or draw
67%
AS Roma or Napoli
72%
Draw or Napoli
61%

Winning margin

AS Roma wins by 2+
17%
Napoli wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

AS Roma 1+ goals
71%
AS Roma 2+ goals
35%
AS Roma 3+ goals
13%
Napoli 1+ goals
67%
Napoli 2+ goals
30%
Napoli 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

AS Roma (draw refunded)
54%
Napoli (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AS Roma at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.87 · 23 matches

Napoli away — creates 1.35, concedes 0.88 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AS Roma attack 1.57 + Napoli defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.23

Napoli attack 1.35 + AS Roma defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

AS Roma scores more
39%
level
28%
Napoli scores more
33%

AS Roma at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "AS Roma will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

2
R. KarsdorpAS RomaAS Roma · D
8.0

Match Events

30'
Tammy Abraham
66'
S. El Shaarawy← H. Mkhitaryan
71'
H. Lozano← M. Politano
71'
E. Elmas← P. Zieliński
81'
D. Mertens← L. Insigne
86'
E. Shomurodov← T. Abraham
90+5'
Gianluca Mancini
90+4'
Jordan Veretout
90+4'
Rick Karsdorp
90+5'
Dries Mertens

Possession

38%AS

Shots

13AS

Pass accuracy

48%AS

Statistics

ASNapoli
Overview
38%Possession62%
13Total Shots11
7Corners4
14Fouls10
Shots
13Total Shots11
1On Target3
6Off Target4
6Blocked4
8Inside Box6
5Outside Box5
Passing
38%Possession62%
312Total Passes536
251Accurate Passes467
80%Pass Accuracy87%
Goalkeeping
2Saves1
Discipline
14Fouls10
4Yellow Cards1
0Offsides6

Serie A: AS Roma 0–0 Napoli

AS Roma and Napoli drew 0-0 in Serie A on October 24, 2021.

Napoli controlled possession (62%) and registered 11 shots to 13.

The match was played at Stadio Olimpico in Roma.