AS Roma 3–2 Cagliari: Result & Stats | Serie A

AS Roma

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Cagliari

G. Mancini 77'

E. Džeko 71'

J. Veretout 11'

João Pedro 90+1' (pen), 59'

12/23/2020

Serie A · Round 14Stadio Olimpico

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 21+ matches

AS Roma56%

×Draw25%

Cagliari19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AS RomaExpected goals in this matchCagliari

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.64

0.84

AS Roma

1.64

Cagliari

0.84

AS Roma creates 95% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 25 away

1.60

creates per match

0.95

0.74

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

AS Roma

1.60

Cagliari

0.95

allows per match

AS Roma

0.74

Cagliari

1.67

+0.26scores more than expected

finishing

-0.03on par

finishing

AS Roma+0.26scores more

Cagliari-0.03on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AS Roma ↓

Cagliari →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

AS Roma or draw

81%

AS Roma or Cagliari

75%

Draw or Cagliari

44%

Winning margin

AS Roma wins by 2+

31%

Cagliari wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

AS Roma 1+ goals

81%

AS Roma 2+ goals

49%

AS Roma 3+ goals

23%

Cagliari 1+ goals

57%

Cagliari 2+ goals

21%

Cagliari 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

AS Roma (draw refunded)

75%

Cagliari (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AS Roma at home — creates 1.60, concedes 0.74 · 21 matches

Cagliari away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.67 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AS Roma attack 1.60 + Cagliari defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.64

Cagliari attack 0.95 + AS Roma defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

AS Roma scores more

56%

level

25%

Cagliari scores more

19%

AS Roma at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "AS Roma will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

João Pedro

Cagliari · F

9.2

Match Events

11'

J. Veretout

15'

C. Oliva← M. Rog

19'

20'

29'

37'

59'

60'

63'

63'

71'

E. Džeko↳ R. Karsdorp

73'

C. Smalling← B. Cristante

74'

Pau López← A. Mirante

77'

G. Mancini↳ C. Smalling

78'

Borja Mayoral← E. Džeko

78'

L. Pavoletti← G. Simeone

78'

R. Sottil← C. Lykogiannis

85'

G. Pereiro← R. Marin

85'

F. Caligara← D. Godín

90+1'

João PedroPenalty

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ASCagliari

Overview

62%Possession38%

15Total Shots10

6Corners0

18Fouls20

Shots

15Total Shots10

8On Target2

5Off Target5

2Blocked3

9Inside Box8

6Outside Box2

Passing

62%Possession38%

535Total Passes325

451Accurate Passes245

84%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

0Saves5

Discipline

18Fouls20

3Yellow Cards2

1Offsides3