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AS Roma vs Brescia — Serie A 2026

AS Roma
AS Roma
FT
3 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Brescia
Brescia
11/24/2019Serie ASerie A · Round 13Stadio Olimpico

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

AS Roma65%
×Draw20%
Brescia14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AS Roma
2.02
Brescia
0.81

AS Roma creates 149% more chances

Season form · 130 home / 22 away

creates per match

AS Roma
1.82
Brescia
0.68

allows per match

AS Roma
0.95
Brescia
2.23

finishing

AS Roma+0.00on par
Brescia+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AS Roma ↓

Brescia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

AS Roma or draw
86%
AS Roma or Brescia
80%
Draw or Brescia
35%

Winning margin

AS Roma wins by 2+
41%
Brescia wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

AS Roma 1+ goals
87%
AS Roma 2+ goals
60%
AS Roma 3+ goals
33%
Brescia 1+ goals
56%
Brescia 2+ goals
19%
Brescia 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

AS Roma (draw refunded)
82%
Brescia (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AS Roma at home — creates 1.82, concedes 0.95 · 130 matches

Brescia away — creates 0.68, concedes 2.23 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AS Roma attack 1.82 + Brescia defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 2.02

Brescia attack 0.68 + AS Roma defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

AS Roma scores more
65%
level
20%
Brescia scores more
14%

AS Roma at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "AS Roma will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie A: AS Roma 3–0 Brescia

AS Roma beat Brescia 3-0 in Serie A on November 24, 2019.

The match was played at Stadio Olimpico in Roma.