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AS Roma vs Atalanta — Serie A 2026

AS Roma
AS Roma
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Atalanta
Atalanta
T. Abraham 32'
3/5/2022Serie ASerie A · Round 28Stadio Olimpico

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 20+ matches

AS Roma45%
×Draw26%
Atalanta28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AS Roma
1.44
Atalanta
1.08

AS Roma creates 33% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 25 away

creates per match

AS Roma
1.65
Atalanta
1.40

allows per match

AS Roma
0.76
Atalanta
1.22

finishing

AS Roma+0.25scores more
Atalanta+0.04on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AS Roma ↓

Atalanta →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

AS Roma or draw
72%
AS Roma or Atalanta
74%
Draw or Atalanta
55%

Winning margin

AS Roma wins by 2+
22%
Atalanta wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

AS Roma 1+ goals
76%
AS Roma 2+ goals
42%
AS Roma 3+ goals
18%
Atalanta 1+ goals
66%
Atalanta 2+ goals
29%
Atalanta 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

AS Roma (draw refunded)
62%
Atalanta (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AS Roma at home — creates 1.65, concedes 0.76 · 20 matches

Atalanta away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.22 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AS Roma attack 1.65 + Atalanta defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.44

Atalanta attack 1.40 + AS Roma defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

AS Roma scores more
45%
level
26%
Atalanta scores more
28%

AS Roma at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "AS Roma will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1
Rui PatrícioAS RomaAS Roma · G
7.6

Match Events

9'
Bryan Cristante
21'
Tammy Abraham
21'
G. Pezzella← D. Zappacosta
32'
T. Abraham↳ N. Zaniolo
46'
L. Muriel← M. Pašalić
60'
J. Boga← M. Pessina
60'
R. Malinovskyi← T. Koopmeiners
62'
M. Viña← N. Zalewski
66'
Henrikh Mkhitaryan
69'
Marash Kumbulla
75'
J. Veretout← N. Zaniolo
78'
Ruslan Malinovskyi
81'
B. Djimsiti← J. Palomino
83'
Ibañez← R. Karsdorp
84'
F. Ohene-Gyan← T. Abraham
84'
Sérgio Oliveira← L. Pellegrini
85'
Roger Ibañez
86'
Merih Demiral
90+6'
Henrikh Mkhitaryan
90+6'
Henrikh Mkhitaryan
90+5'
Marten de Roon
90+4'
Marten de Roon
90+5'
Marten de Roon

Possession

35%AS

Shots

13AS

Pass accuracy

46%AS

Statistics

ASAtalanta
Overview
35%Possession65%
13Total Shots7
6Corners3
17Fouls16
Shots
13Total Shots7
4On Target4
3Off Target1
6Blocked2
5Inside Box4
8Outside Box3
Passing
35%Possession65%
310Total Passes592
230Accurate Passes508
74%Pass Accuracy86%
Goalkeeping
4Saves3
Discipline
17Fouls16
6Yellow Cards4
1Red Cards1
3Offsides4

Serie A: AS Roma 1–0 Atalanta

AS Roma beat Atalanta 1-0 in Serie A on March 5, 2022.

Goals: T. Abraham (32').

Atalanta controlled possession (65%) and registered 7 shots to 13.

The match was played at Stadio Olimpico in Roma.