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AS Roma vs Atalanta — Serie A 2026

AS Roma
AS Roma
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Atalanta
Atalanta
Marten de Roon 90'
Duván Zapata 70'
9/25/2019Serie ASerie A · Round 5Stadio Olimpico

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 23+ matches

AS Roma44%
×Draw27%
Atalanta29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AS Roma
1.40
Atalanta
1.08

AS Roma creates 30% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 31 away

creates per match

AS Roma
1.57
Atalanta
1.29

allows per match

AS Roma
0.87
Atalanta
1.23

finishing

AS Roma+0.26scores more
Atalanta+0.03on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AS Roma ↓

Atalanta →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

AS Roma or draw
71%
AS Roma or Atalanta
73%
Draw or Atalanta
56%

Winning margin

AS Roma wins by 2+
21%
Atalanta wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

AS Roma 1+ goals
75%
AS Roma 2+ goals
41%
AS Roma 3+ goals
17%
Atalanta 1+ goals
66%
Atalanta 2+ goals
29%
Atalanta 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

AS Roma (draw refunded)
60%
Atalanta (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AS Roma at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.87 · 23 matches

Atalanta away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.23 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AS Roma attack 1.57 + Atalanta defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.40

Atalanta attack 1.29 + AS Roma defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

AS Roma scores more
44%
level
27%
Atalanta scores more
29%

AS Roma at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "AS Roma will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
Alejandro GómezAtalantaAtalanta · F
8.1

Match Events

25'
Simon Kjær
40'
Nicolò Zaniolo
56'
Juan Jesus← Leonardo Spinazzola
60'
Duván Zapata← Josip Iličić
65'
Henrikh Mkhitaryan← Nicolò Zaniolo
70'
Duván Zapata↳ Remo Freuler
76'
Nikola Kalinić← Federico Fazio
79'
Robin Gosens← Ruslan Malinovskyi
88'
Mario Pašalić← Alejandro Gómez
89'
Juan Jesus
90'
Marten de Roon↳ Mario Pašalić

Possession

46%AS

Shots

13AS

Pass accuracy

49%AS

Statistics

ASAtalanta
Overview
46%Possession54%
13Total Shots18
5Corners1
18Fouls11
Shots
13Total Shots18
2On Target5
3Off Target10
8Blocked3
8Inside Box12
5Outside Box6
Passing
46%Possession54%
443Total Passes525
360Accurate Passes442
81%Pass Accuracy84%
Goalkeeping
3Saves2
Discipline
18Fouls11
2Yellow Cards1
2Offsides4

Serie A: AS Roma 0–2 Atalanta

Atalanta beat AS Roma 2-0 in Serie A on September 25, 2019.

Goals: Duván Zapata (70'), Marten de Roon (90').

Atalanta controlled possession (54%) and registered 18 shots to 13.

The match was played at Stadio Olimpico in Roma.