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AS Rejiche vs Rogba Tataouine — Ligue 2 2020

AS Rejiche
AS Rejiche
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Rogba Tataouine
Rogba Tataouine
A. Msakni 73' (pen)
2/11/2024Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 15Stade de Rejiche

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

AS Rejiche39%
×Draw28%
Rogba Tataouine32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AS Rejiche
1.21
Rogba Tataouine
1.07

AS Rejiche creates 13% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 36 away

creates per match

AS Rejiche
0.92
Rogba Tataouine
0.56

allows per match

AS Rejiche
1.58
Rogba Tataouine
1.50

finishing

AS Rejiche+0.00on par
Rogba Tataouine+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AS Rejiche ↓

Rogba Tataouine →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

AS Rejiche or draw
68%
AS Rejiche or Rogba Tataouine
72%
Draw or Rogba Tataouine
61%

Winning margin

AS Rejiche wins by 2+
17%
Rogba Tataouine wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

AS Rejiche 1+ goals
70%
AS Rejiche 2+ goals
34%
AS Rejiche 3+ goals
12%
Rogba Tataouine 1+ goals
66%
Rogba Tataouine 2+ goals
29%
Rogba Tataouine 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

AS Rejiche (draw refunded)
55%
Rogba Tataouine (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AS Rejiche at home — creates 0.92, concedes 1.58 · 12 matches

Rogba Tataouine away — creates 0.56, concedes 1.50 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AS Rejiche attack 0.92 + Rogba Tataouine defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.21

Rogba Tataouine attack 0.56 + AS Rejiche defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

AS Rejiche scores more
39%
level
28%
Rogba Tataouine scores more
32%

AS Rejiche at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "AS Rejiche will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

73'
A. MsakniPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: AS Rejiche vs Rogba Tataouine

Rogba Tataouine beat AS Rejiche 1-0 in Ligue 2 on February 11, 2024.

Goals: A. Msakni (73' pen).

The match was played at Stade de Rejiche in Rejiche.