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AS Rejiche vs Jerba — Ligue 2 2020

AS Rejiche
AS Rejiche
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Jerba
Jerba
M. H. Sioud 72'
M. Bhar 32'
K. Yaakoubi 17'
11/19/2023Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 7Stade de Rejiche

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

AS Rejiche35%
×Draw29%
Jerba36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AS Rejiche
1.07
Jerba
1.09

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 12 home / 48 away

creates per match

AS Rejiche
0.92
Jerba
0.60

allows per match

AS Rejiche
1.58
Jerba
1.23

finishing

AS Rejiche+0.00on par
Jerba+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AS Rejiche ↓

Jerba →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–113%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

AS Rejiche or draw
64%
AS Rejiche or Jerba
71%
Draw or Jerba
65%

Winning margin

AS Rejiche wins by 2+
14%
Jerba wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

AS Rejiche 1+ goals
66%
AS Rejiche 2+ goals
29%
AS Rejiche 3+ goals
9%
Jerba 1+ goals
66%
Jerba 2+ goals
30%
Jerba 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

AS Rejiche (draw refunded)
49%
Jerba (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AS Rejiche at home — creates 0.92, concedes 1.58 · 12 matches

Jerba away — creates 0.60, concedes 1.23 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AS Rejiche attack 0.92 + Jerba defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.07

Jerba attack 0.60 + AS Rejiche defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

AS Rejiche scores more
35%
level
29%
Jerba scores more
36%

Jerba at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Jerba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'
K. Yaakoubi
32'
M. Bhar
72'
M. H. Sioud

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 2: AS Rejiche 1–2 Jerba

Jerba beat AS Rejiche 2-1 in Ligue 2 on November 19, 2023.

Goals: K. Yaakoubi (17'), M. Bhar (32'), M. H. Sioud (72').

The match was played at Stade de Rejiche in Rejiche.