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AS Rejiche vs AS Gabes — Ligue 2 2020

AS Rejiche
AS Rejiche
FT
1 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
AS Gabes
AS Gabes
S. Frikha 85'
K. Wajdi 69', 25'
H. Mansour 55'
Y. Mallat 35'
12/3/2023Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 9Stade de Rejiche

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

AS Rejiche33%
×Draw28%
AS Gabes39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AS Rejiche
1.10
AS Gabes
1.24

AS Gabes creates 13% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 36 away

creates per match

AS Rejiche
0.92
AS Gabes
0.89

allows per match

AS Rejiche
1.58
AS Gabes
1.28

finishing

AS Rejiche+0.00on par
AS Gabes+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AS Rejiche ↓

AS Gabes →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

AS Rejiche or draw
61%
AS Rejiche or AS Gabes
72%
Draw or AS Gabes
67%

Winning margin

AS Rejiche wins by 2+
13%
AS Gabes wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

AS Rejiche 1+ goals
67%
AS Rejiche 2+ goals
30%
AS Rejiche 3+ goals
10%
AS Gabes 1+ goals
71%
AS Gabes 2+ goals
35%
AS Gabes 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

AS Rejiche (draw refunded)
45%
AS Gabes (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AS Rejiche at home — creates 0.92, concedes 1.58 · 12 matches

AS Gabes away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.28 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AS Rejiche attack 0.92 + AS Gabes defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.10

AS Gabes attack 0.89 + AS Rejiche defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

AS Rejiche scores more
33%
level
28%
AS Gabes scores more
39%

AS Gabes at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "AS Gabes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

25'
K. Wajdi
35'
Y. Mallat
55'
H. Mansour
69'
K. Wajdi
85'
S. Frikha

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 2: AS Rejiche 1–4 AS Gabes

AS Gabes beat AS Rejiche 4-1 in Ligue 2 on December 3, 2023.

Goals: K. Wajdi (25', 69'), Y. Mallat (35'), H. Mansour (55'), S. Frikha (85').

The match was played at Stade de Rejiche in Rejiche.