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AS Puma Generalena vs Univ. DE Costa Rica — Liga de Ascenso 2018

AS Puma Generalena
AS Puma Generalena
FT
0 – 0
Univ. DE Costa Rica
Univ. DE Costa Rica
10/3/2020Liga de AscensoLiga de Ascenso · Apertura - 5Estadio Municipal de Puntarenas Miguel Ángel Lito Pérez Treacy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

AS Puma Generalena42%
×Draw30%
Univ. DE Costa Rica28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AS Puma Generalena
1.14
Univ. DE Costa Rica
0.88

AS Puma Generalena creates 30% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 5 away

creates per match

AS Puma Generalena
1.28
Univ. DE Costa Rica
0.40

allows per match

AS Puma Generalena
1.36
Univ. DE Costa Rica
1.00

finishing

AS Puma Generalena+0.00on par
Univ. DE Costa Rica+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AS Puma Generalena ↓

Univ. DE Costa Rica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–112%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

AS Puma Generalena or draw
72%
AS Puma Generalena or Univ. DE Costa Rica
70%
Draw or Univ. DE Costa Rica
58%

Winning margin

AS Puma Generalena wins by 2+
18%
Univ. DE Costa Rica wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

AS Puma Generalena 1+ goals
68%
AS Puma Generalena 2+ goals
32%
AS Puma Generalena 3+ goals
11%
Univ. DE Costa Rica 1+ goals
59%
Univ. DE Costa Rica 2+ goals
22%
Univ. DE Costa Rica 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

AS Puma Generalena (draw refunded)
60%
Univ. DE Costa Rica (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AS Puma Generalena at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.36 · 76 matches

Univ. DE Costa Rica away — creates 0.40, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AS Puma Generalena attack 1.28 + Univ. DE Costa Rica defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.14

Univ. DE Costa Rica attack 0.40 + AS Puma Generalena defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

AS Puma Generalena scores more
42%
level
30%
Univ. DE Costa Rica scores more
28%

AS Puma Generalena at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "AS Puma Generalena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

AS Puma Generalena 0 – 0 Univ. DE Costa Rica

AS Puma Generalena and Univ. DE Costa Rica drew 0-0 in Liga de Ascenso on October 3, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Puntarenas Miguel Ángel Lito Pérez Treacy in Puntarenas.