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AS Puma Generalena vs Sporting San Jose — Liga de Ascenso 2018

AS Puma Generalena
AS Puma Generalena
FT
1 – 0
Sporting San Jose
Sporting San Jose
8/3/2019Liga de AscensoLiga de Ascenso · Apertura - 2Estadio Municipal de Garabito

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

AS Puma Generalena32%
×Draw27%
Sporting San Jose41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AS Puma Generalena
1.16
Sporting San Jose
1.33

Sporting San Jose creates 15% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 39 away

creates per match

AS Puma Generalena
1.28
Sporting San Jose
1.31

allows per match

AS Puma Generalena
1.36
Sporting San Jose
1.03

finishing

AS Puma Generalena+0.00on par
Sporting San Jose+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AS Puma Generalena ↓

Sporting San Jose →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

AS Puma Generalena or draw
59%
AS Puma Generalena or Sporting San Jose
73%
Draw or Sporting San Jose
68%

Winning margin

AS Puma Generalena wins by 2+
13%
Sporting San Jose wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

AS Puma Generalena 1+ goals
69%
AS Puma Generalena 2+ goals
32%
AS Puma Generalena 3+ goals
11%
Sporting San Jose 1+ goals
74%
Sporting San Jose 2+ goals
38%
Sporting San Jose 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

AS Puma Generalena (draw refunded)
44%
Sporting San Jose (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AS Puma Generalena at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.36 · 76 matches

Sporting San Jose away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.03 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AS Puma Generalena attack 1.28 + Sporting San Jose defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.16

Sporting San Jose attack 1.31 + AS Puma Generalena defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

AS Puma Generalena scores more
32%
level
27%
Sporting San Jose scores more
41%

Sporting San Jose at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Sporting San Jose will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: AS Puma Generalena vs Sporting San Jose

AS Puma Generalena beat Sporting San Jose 1-0 in Liga de Ascenso on August 3, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Garabito in Garabito.