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AS Puma Generalena vs Municipal Liberia — Liga de Ascenso 2018

AS Puma Generalena
AS Puma Generalena
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Municipal Liberia
Municipal Liberia
4/1/2022Liga de AscensoLiga de Ascenso · Clausura - 17Estadio Municipal de Garabito

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

AS Puma Generalena39%
×Draw25%
Municipal Liberia36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AS Puma Generalena
1.42
Municipal Liberia
1.35

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 76 home / 80 away

creates per match

AS Puma Generalena
1.28
Municipal Liberia
1.35

allows per match

AS Puma Generalena
1.36
Municipal Liberia
1.55

finishing

AS Puma Generalena+0.00on par
Municipal Liberia+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AS Puma Generalena ↓

Municipal Liberia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

AS Puma Generalena or draw
64%
AS Puma Generalena or Municipal Liberia
75%
Draw or Municipal Liberia
61%

Winning margin

AS Puma Generalena wins by 2+
18%
Municipal Liberia wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

AS Puma Generalena 1+ goals
76%
AS Puma Generalena 2+ goals
41%
AS Puma Generalena 3+ goals
17%
Municipal Liberia 1+ goals
74%
Municipal Liberia 2+ goals
39%
Municipal Liberia 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

AS Puma Generalena (draw refunded)
52%
Municipal Liberia (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AS Puma Generalena at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.36 · 76 matches

Municipal Liberia away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.55 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AS Puma Generalena attack 1.28 + Municipal Liberia defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.42

Municipal Liberia attack 1.35 + AS Puma Generalena defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

AS Puma Generalena scores more
39%
level
25%
Municipal Liberia scores more
36%

AS Puma Generalena at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "AS Puma Generalena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: AS Puma Generalena vs Municipal Liberia

Municipal Liberia beat AS Puma Generalena 3-1 in Liga de Ascenso on April 1, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Garabito in Garabito.