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AS Puma Generalena vs AD Santa Rosa — Liga de Ascenso 2018

AS Puma Generalena
AS Puma Generalena
FT
1 – 1
AD Santa Rosa
AD Santa Rosa
9/19/2020Liga de AscensoLiga de Ascenso · Apertura - 3Estadio Municipal de Puntarenas Miguel Ángel Lito Pérez Treacy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

AS Puma Generalena42%
×Draw26%
AD Santa Rosa31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AS Puma Generalena
1.40
AD Santa Rosa
1.16

AS Puma Generalena creates 21% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 42 away

creates per match

AS Puma Generalena
1.28
AD Santa Rosa
0.95

allows per match

AS Puma Generalena
1.36
AD Santa Rosa
1.52

finishing

AS Puma Generalena+0.00on par
AD Santa Rosa+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AS Puma Generalena ↓

AD Santa Rosa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

AS Puma Generalena or draw
69%
AS Puma Generalena or AD Santa Rosa
74%
Draw or AD Santa Rosa
58%

Winning margin

AS Puma Generalena wins by 2+
20%
AD Santa Rosa wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

AS Puma Generalena 1+ goals
75%
AS Puma Generalena 2+ goals
41%
AS Puma Generalena 3+ goals
17%
AD Santa Rosa 1+ goals
69%
AD Santa Rosa 2+ goals
32%
AD Santa Rosa 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

AS Puma Generalena (draw refunded)
58%
AD Santa Rosa (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AS Puma Generalena at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.36 · 76 matches

AD Santa Rosa away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.52 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AS Puma Generalena attack 1.28 + AD Santa Rosa defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.40

AD Santa Rosa attack 0.95 + AS Puma Generalena defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

AS Puma Generalena scores more
42%
level
26%
AD Santa Rosa scores more
31%

AS Puma Generalena at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "AS Puma Generalena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga de Ascenso: AS Puma Generalena 1–1 AD Santa Rosa

AS Puma Generalena and AD Santa Rosa drew 1-1 in Liga de Ascenso on September 19, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Puntarenas Miguel Ángel Lito Pérez Treacy in Puntarenas.