As Pontes 2–1 Rápido Bouzas: Result & Stats

As Pontes

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Rápido Bouzas

11/24/2019

Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 14Estadio O Poboado

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

As Pontes40%

×Draw25%

Rápido Bouzas35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

As PontesExpected goals in this matchRápido Bouzas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

1.33

As Pontes

1.45

Rápido Bouzas

1.33

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 30 home / 75 away

1.67

creates per match

1.12

1.53

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

As Pontes

1.67

Rápido Bouzas

1.12

allows per match

As Pontes

1.53

Rápido Bouzas

1.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

As Pontes+0.00on par

Rápido Bouzas+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

As Pontes ↓

Rápido Bouzas →

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

As Pontes or draw

65%

As Pontes or Rápido Bouzas

75%

Draw or Rápido Bouzas

60%

Winning margin

As Pontes wins by 2+

19%

Rápido Bouzas wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

As Pontes 1+ goals

77%

As Pontes 2+ goals

42%

As Pontes 3+ goals

18%

Rápido Bouzas 1+ goals

74%

Rápido Bouzas 2+ goals

38%

Rápido Bouzas 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

As Pontes (draw refunded)

54%

Rápido Bouzas (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

As Pontes at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.53 · 30 matches

Rápido Bouzas away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.23 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

As Pontes attack 1.67 + Rápido Bouzas defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.45

Rápido Bouzas attack 1.12 + As Pontes defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 40%?"

As Pontes scores more

40%

level

25%

Rápido Bouzas scores more

35%

As Pontes at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "As Pontes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 1: As Pontes 2–1 Rápido Bouzas

As Pontes beat Rápido Bouzas 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 on November 24, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio O Poboado in Puentes de García Rodríguez.

As Pontes vs Rápido Bouzas — Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 1: As Pontes 2–1 Rápido Bouzas