As Pontes 1–1 Ourense CF: Result & Stats

As Pontes

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Ourense CF

David García 81'

Jerin Ramos 10'

5/23/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 2nd Phase - 8Estadio O Poboado

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

As Pontes34%

×Draw25%

Ourense CF41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

As PontesExpected goals in this matchOurense CF

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

1.50

As Pontes

1.34

Ourense CF

1.50

Ourense CF creates 12% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 47 away

1.67

creates per match

1.47

1.53

allows per match

1.02

creates per match

As Pontes

1.67

Ourense CF

1.47

allows per match

As Pontes

1.53

Ourense CF

1.02

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

As Pontes+0.00on par

Ourense CF+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

As Pontes ↓

Ourense CF →

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

As Pontes or draw

59%

As Pontes or Ourense CF

75%

Draw or Ourense CF

66%

Winning margin

As Pontes wins by 2+

15%

Ourense CF wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

As Pontes 1+ goals

74%

As Pontes 2+ goals

39%

As Pontes 3+ goals

15%

Ourense CF 1+ goals

78%

Ourense CF 2+ goals

44%

Ourense CF 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

As Pontes (draw refunded)

45%

Ourense CF (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

As Pontes at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.53 · 30 matches

Ourense CF away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.02 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

As Pontes attack 1.67 + Ourense CF defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.34

Ourense CF attack 1.47 + As Pontes defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 41%?"

As Pontes scores more

34%

level

25%

Ourense CF scores more

41%

Ourense CF at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Ourense CF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'

Jerin Ramos

63'

Rubén Pardo← Artai Miraz

66'

Óscar Lorenzo← Andoni Pérez

66'

Victor Sanchis← Willian

67'

Daniel Pájaro← Adrián Martínez

78'

Quique← David Mitogo

81'

David García

89'

Alfonso Santiso← C. Rodríguez

Ourense

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

Manager: Chollas

63'▲Rubén Pardo←▼Artai Miraz

67'▲Daniel Pájaro←▼Adrián Martínez

78'▲Quique←▼David Mitogo

As Pontes substitutes

PardoPájaroQuique

Manager: Rubén Domínguez

66'▲Óscar Lorenzo←▼Andoni Pérez

66'▲Victor Sanchis←▼Willian

89'▲Alfonso Santiso←▼C. Rodríguez

Ourense CF substitutes

LorenzoSanchisSantiso

Tercera División RFEF - Group 1: As Pontes 1–1 Ourense CF

As Pontes and Ourense CF drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 on May 23, 2021.

Goals: Jerin Ramos (10'), David García (81').

The match was played at Estadio O Poboado in Puentes de García Rodríguez.

As Pontes vs Ourense CF — Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 1: As Pontes 1–1 Ourense CF