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As Pontes vs Arosa — Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

As Pontes
As Pontes
FT
3 – 4
HT: 1 – 2
Arosa
Arosa
9/15/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 1Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 4Estadio O Poboado

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

As Pontes35%
×Draw25%
Arosa40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

As Pontes
1.39
Arosa
1.50

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 30 home / 94 away

creates per match

As Pontes
1.67
Arosa
1.48

allows per match

As Pontes
1.53
Arosa
1.10

finishing

As Pontes+0.00on par
Arosa+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

As Pontes ↓

Arosa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

As Pontes or draw
60%
As Pontes or Arosa
75%
Draw or Arosa
65%

Winning margin

As Pontes wins by 2+
16%
Arosa wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

As Pontes 1+ goals
75%
As Pontes 2+ goals
40%
As Pontes 3+ goals
16%
Arosa 1+ goals
78%
Arosa 2+ goals
44%
Arosa 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

As Pontes (draw refunded)
47%
Arosa (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

As Pontes at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.53 · 30 matches

Arosa away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.10 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

As Pontes attack 1.67 + Arosa defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.39

Arosa attack 1.48 + As Pontes defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

As Pontes scores more
35%
level
25%
Arosa scores more
40%

Arosa at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Arosa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 1: As Pontes 3–4 Arosa

Arosa beat As Pontes 4-3 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 on September 15, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio O Poboado in Puentes de García Rodríguez.