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As Pontes vs Agrupación Estudiantil — Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

As Pontes
As Pontes
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Agrupación Estudiantil
Agrupación Estudiantil
11/29/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 1Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 7Estadio O Poboado

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

As Pontes51%
×Draw22%
Agrupación Estudiantil27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

As Pontes
1.90
Agrupación Estudiantil
1.33

As Pontes creates 43% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 17 away

creates per match

As Pontes
1.67
Agrupación Estudiantil
1.12

allows per match

As Pontes
1.53
Agrupación Estudiantil
2.12

finishing

As Pontes+0.00on par
Agrupación Estudiantil+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

As Pontes ↓

Agrupación Estudiantil →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

As Pontes or draw
73%
As Pontes or Agrupación Estudiantil
78%
Draw or Agrupación Estudiantil
49%

Winning margin

As Pontes wins by 2+
29%
Agrupación Estudiantil wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

As Pontes 1+ goals
85%
As Pontes 2+ goals
56%
As Pontes 3+ goals
29%
Agrupación Estudiantil 1+ goals
74%
Agrupación Estudiantil 2+ goals
38%
Agrupación Estudiantil 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

As Pontes (draw refunded)
65%
Agrupación Estudiantil (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

As Pontes at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.53 · 30 matches

Agrupación Estudiantil away — creates 1.12, concedes 2.12 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

As Pontes attack 1.67 + Agrupación Estudiantil defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 1.90

Agrupación Estudiantil attack 1.12 + As Pontes defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

As Pontes scores more
51%
level
22%
Agrupación Estudiantil scores more
27%

As Pontes at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "As Pontes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: As Pontes vs Agrupación Estudiantil

As Pontes beat Agrupación Estudiantil 4-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 on November 29, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio O Poboado in Puentes de García Rodríguez.