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AS New Soger vs Panda B5 — Ligue 1 2019

AS New Soger
AS New Soger
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Panda B5
Panda B5
12/1/2025Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 10

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

AS New Soger60%
×Draw23%
Panda B517%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AS New Soger
1.77
Panda B5
0.80

AS New Soger creates 121% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 52 away

creates per match

AS New Soger
1.57
Panda B5
0.40

allows per match

AS New Soger
1.21
Panda B5
1.98

finishing

AS New Soger+0.00on par
Panda B5+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AS New Soger ↓

Panda B5 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

AS New Soger or draw
83%
AS New Soger or Panda B5
77%
Draw or Panda B5
40%

Winning margin

AS New Soger wins by 2+
35%
Panda B5 wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

AS New Soger 1+ goals
83%
AS New Soger 2+ goals
53%
AS New Soger 3+ goals
26%
Panda B5 1+ goals
55%
Panda B5 2+ goals
19%
Panda B5 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

AS New Soger (draw refunded)
78%
Panda B5 (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AS New Soger at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.21 · 14 matches

Panda B5 away — creates 0.40, concedes 1.98 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AS New Soger attack 1.57 + Panda B5 defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 1.77

Panda B5 attack 0.40 + AS New Soger defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

AS New Soger scores more
60%
level
23%
Panda B5 scores more
17%

AS New Soger at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "AS New Soger will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 1: AS New Soger 2–1 Panda B5

AS New Soger beat Panda B5 2-1 in Ligue 1 on December 1, 2025.