AS New Soger 3–1 Blessing: Result & Stats | Ligue 1

AS New Soger

FT

3 – 1

Blessing

1/18/2026

Ligue 1 · Round 19

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

AS New Soger44%

×Draw28%

Blessing28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AS New SogerExpected goals in this matchBlessing

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

1.01

AS New Soger

1.34

Blessing

1.01

AS New Soger creates 33% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 62 away

1.57

creates per match

0.81

1.21

allows per match

1.11

creates per match

AS New Soger

1.57

Blessing

0.81

allows per match

AS New Soger

1.21

Blessing

1.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

AS New Soger+0.00on par

Blessing+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AS New Soger ↓

Blessing →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

AS New Soger or draw

72%

AS New Soger or Blessing

72%

Draw or Blessing

56%

Winning margin

AS New Soger wins by 2+

21%

Blessing wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

AS New Soger 1+ goals

74%

AS New Soger 2+ goals

39%

AS New Soger 3+ goals

15%

Blessing 1+ goals

64%

Blessing 2+ goals

27%

Blessing 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

AS New Soger (draw refunded)

61%

Blessing (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AS New Soger at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.21 · 14 matches

Blessing away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.11 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AS New Soger attack 1.57 + Blessing defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.34

Blessing attack 0.81 + AS New Soger defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

AS New Soger scores more

44%

level

28%

Blessing scores more

28%

AS New Soger at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "AS New Soger will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff