AS Marsa 2–1 Oued Ellil: Result & Stats | Ligue 2

AS Marsa

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Oued Ellil

O. Traidi 61'

M. Nouioui 10' (pen)

R. Houimli 7'

1/3/2023

Ligue 2 · Round 10Stade Abdelaziz Chtioui

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

AS Marsa64%

×Draw24%

Oued Ellil13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AS MarsaExpected goals in this matchOued Ellil

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

0.58

AS Marsa

1.67

Oued Ellil

0.58

AS Marsa creates 188% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 46 away

1.96

creates per match

0.65

0.52

allows per match

1.37

creates per match

AS Marsa

1.96

Oued Ellil

0.65

allows per match

AS Marsa

0.52

Oued Ellil

1.37

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

AS Marsa+0.00on par

Oued Ellil+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AS Marsa ↓

Oued Ellil →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–16%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–110%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–015%

2–19%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–15%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

AS Marsa or draw

87%

AS Marsa or Oued Ellil

76%

Draw or Oued Ellil

36%

Winning margin

AS Marsa wins by 2+

36%

Oued Ellil wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

AS Marsa 1+ goals

81%

AS Marsa 2+ goals

50%

AS Marsa 3+ goals

23%

Oued Ellil 1+ goals

44%

Oued Ellil 2+ goals

12%

Oued Ellil 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

AS Marsa (draw refunded)

84%

Oued Ellil (draw refunded)

16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AS Marsa at home — creates 1.96, concedes 0.52 · 25 matches

Oued Ellil away — creates 0.65, concedes 1.37 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AS Marsa attack 1.96 + Oued Ellil defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.67

Oued Ellil attack 0.65 + AS Marsa defence 0.52 → ÷2 → 0.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

AS Marsa scores more

64%

level

24%

Oued Ellil scores more

13%

AS Marsa at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "AS Marsa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'

R. Houimli

10'

M. NouiouiPenalty

61'

O. Traidi

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff