AS Marsa 3–0 Menzel Bourguiba: Result & Stats

AS Marsa

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Menzel Bourguiba

3/16/2025

Ligue 2 · Round 19Stade Abdelaziz Chtioui

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

AS Marsa74%

×Draw19%

Menzel Bourguiba7%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AS MarsaExpected goals in this matchMenzel Bourguiba

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.89

0.40

AS Marsa

1.89

Menzel Bourguiba

0.40

AS Marsa creates 372% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 26 away

1.96

creates per match

0.27

0.52

allows per match

1.81

creates per match

AS Marsa

1.96

Menzel Bourguiba

0.27

allows per match

AS Marsa

0.52

Menzel Bourguiba

1.81

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

AS Marsa+0.00on par

Menzel Bourguiba+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No72
Yes28

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AS Marsa ↓

Menzel Bourguiba →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–14%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–019%

1–18%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–018%

2–17%

2–21%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–011%

3–15%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–12%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

AS Marsa or draw

93%

AS Marsa or Menzel Bourguiba

81%

Draw or Menzel Bourguiba

26%

Winning margin

AS Marsa wins by 2+

46%

Menzel Bourguiba wins by 2+

1%

Team goals

AS Marsa 1+ goals

85%

AS Marsa 2+ goals

56%

AS Marsa 3+ goals

29%

Menzel Bourguiba 1+ goals

33%

Menzel Bourguiba 2+ goals

6%

Menzel Bourguiba 3+ goals

1%

Draw no bet

AS Marsa (draw refunded)

91%

Menzel Bourguiba (draw refunded)

9%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

20%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AS Marsa at home — creates 1.96, concedes 0.52 · 25 matches

Menzel Bourguiba away — creates 0.27, concedes 1.81 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AS Marsa attack 1.96 + Menzel Bourguiba defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.89

Menzel Bourguiba attack 0.27 + AS Marsa defence 0.52 → ÷2 → 0.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

AS Marsa scores more

74%

level

19%

Menzel Bourguiba scores more

7%

AS Marsa at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "AS Marsa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff