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AS Marsa vs Jerba — Ligue 2 2020

AS Marsa
AS Marsa
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Jerba
Jerba
M. Toumi 55'
A. Sabbahi 50'
N. Smichi 35'
Z. Abid 48'
5/14/2023Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 20Stade Abdelaziz Chtioui

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

AS Marsa63%
×Draw25%
Jerba13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AS Marsa
1.59
Jerba
0.56

AS Marsa creates 184% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 48 away

creates per match

AS Marsa
1.96
Jerba
0.60

allows per match

AS Marsa
0.52
Jerba
1.23

finishing

AS Marsa+0.00on par
Jerba+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AS Marsa ↓

Jerba →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–17%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–110%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

AS Marsa or draw
87%
AS Marsa or Jerba
75%
Draw or Jerba
37%

Winning margin

AS Marsa wins by 2+
34%
Jerba wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

AS Marsa 1+ goals
80%
AS Marsa 2+ goals
47%
AS Marsa 3+ goals
21%
Jerba 1+ goals
43%
Jerba 2+ goals
11%
Jerba 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

AS Marsa (draw refunded)
83%
Jerba (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AS Marsa at home — creates 1.96, concedes 0.52 · 25 matches

Jerba away — creates 0.60, concedes 1.23 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AS Marsa attack 1.96 + Jerba defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.59

Jerba attack 0.60 + AS Marsa defence 0.52 → ÷2 → 0.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

AS Marsa scores more
63%
level
25%
Jerba scores more
13%

AS Marsa at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "AS Marsa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

35'
N. Smichi
48'
Z. Abid
50'
A. Sabbahi
55'
M. Toumi
77'
M. Toumi

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

AS Marsa 3 – 1 Jerba

AS Marsa beat Jerba 3-1 in Ligue 2 on May 14, 2023.

Goals: N. Smichi (35'), Z. Abid (48'), A. Sabbahi (50'), M. Toumi (55').

The match was played at Stade Abdelaziz Chtioui in La Marsa.