AS Marsa 2–2 EGS Gafsa: Result & Stats | Ligue 2

AS Marsa

Pens

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

EGS Gafsa

T. Belaid 78' (pen)

Y. Werzli 66'

S. Ben Salem 90+3' (pen)

A. Jouini 3'

6/3/2023

Ligue 2 · Championship - FinalStade Mohsen Hadded

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

AS Marsa59%

×Draw25%

EGS Gafsa16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AS MarsaExpected goals in this matchEGS Gafsa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.62

0.71

AS Marsa

1.62

EGS Gafsa

0.71

AS Marsa creates 128% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 36 away

1.96

creates per match

0.89

0.52

allows per match

1.28

creates per match

AS Marsa

1.96

EGS Gafsa

0.89

allows per match

AS Marsa

0.52

EGS Gafsa

1.28

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

AS Marsa+0.00on par

EGS Gafsa+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AS Marsa ↓

EGS Gafsa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–17%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

AS Marsa or draw

84%

AS Marsa or EGS Gafsa

75%

Draw or EGS Gafsa

41%

Winning margin

AS Marsa wins by 2+

32%

EGS Gafsa wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

AS Marsa 1+ goals

80%

AS Marsa 2+ goals

48%

AS Marsa 3+ goals

22%

EGS Gafsa 1+ goals

51%

EGS Gafsa 2+ goals

16%

EGS Gafsa 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

AS Marsa (draw refunded)

79%

EGS Gafsa (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AS Marsa at home — creates 1.96, concedes 0.52 · 25 matches

EGS Gafsa away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.28 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AS Marsa attack 1.96 + EGS Gafsa defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.62

EGS Gafsa attack 0.89 + AS Marsa defence 0.52 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

AS Marsa scores more

59%

level

25%

EGS Gafsa scores more

16%

AS Marsa at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "AS Marsa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'

A. Jouini

66'

Y. Werzli

78'

T. BelaidPenalty

90+3'

S. Ben SalemPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff