AS Marsa 4–0 Bembla: Result & Stats | Ligue 2

AS Marsa

FT

4 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Bembla

5/26/2023

Ligue 2 · Round 22Stade Abdelaziz Chtioui

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

AS Marsa73%

×Draw19%

Bembla9%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AS MarsaExpected goals in this matchBembla

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.04

0.54

AS Marsa

2.04

Bembla

0.54

AS Marsa creates 278% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 16 away

1.96

creates per match

0.56

0.52

allows per match

2.13

creates per match

AS Marsa

1.96

Bembla

0.56

allows per match

AS Marsa

0.52

Bembla

2.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

AS Marsa+0.00on par

Bembla+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AS Marsa ↓

Bembla →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–14%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–18%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–016%

2–19%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–011%

3–16%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

AS Marsa or draw

91%

AS Marsa or Bembla

81%

Draw or Bembla

27%

Winning margin

AS Marsa wins by 2+

47%

Bembla wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

AS Marsa 1+ goals

87%

AS Marsa 2+ goals

60%

AS Marsa 3+ goals

33%

Bembla 1+ goals

42%

Bembla 2+ goals

10%

Bembla 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

AS Marsa (draw refunded)

89%

Bembla (draw refunded)

11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AS Marsa at home — creates 1.96, concedes 0.52 · 25 matches

Bembla away — creates 0.56, concedes 2.13 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AS Marsa attack 1.96 + Bembla defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 2.04

Bembla attack 0.56 + AS Marsa defence 0.52 → ÷2 → 0.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

AS Marsa scores more

73%

level

19%

Bembla scores more

9%

AS Marsa at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "AS Marsa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff