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AS Marsa vs Ariana — Ligue 2 2020

AS Marsa
AS Marsa
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Ariana
Ariana
4/19/2025Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 21Stade Abdelaziz Chtioui

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

AS Marsa64%
×Draw22%
Ariana14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AS Marsa
1.83
Ariana
0.71

AS Marsa creates 158% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 38 away

creates per match

AS Marsa
1.96
Ariana
0.89

allows per match

AS Marsa
0.52
Ariana
1.71

finishing

AS Marsa+0.00on par
Ariana+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AS Marsa ↓

Ariana →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

AS Marsa or draw
86%
AS Marsa or Ariana
78%
Draw or Ariana
36%

Winning margin

AS Marsa wins by 2+
38%
Ariana wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

AS Marsa 1+ goals
84%
AS Marsa 2+ goals
54%
AS Marsa 3+ goals
28%
Ariana 1+ goals
51%
Ariana 2+ goals
16%
Ariana 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

AS Marsa (draw refunded)
82%
Ariana (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AS Marsa at home — creates 1.96, concedes 0.52 · 25 matches

Ariana away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.71 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AS Marsa attack 1.96 + Ariana defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.83

Ariana attack 0.89 + AS Marsa defence 0.52 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

AS Marsa scores more
64%
level
22%
Ariana scores more
14%

AS Marsa at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "AS Marsa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: AS Marsa vs Ariana

AS Marsa beat Ariana 1-0 in Ligue 2 on April 19, 2025.

The match was played at Stade Abdelaziz Chtioui in La Marsa.