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AS Mansouria vs Renaissance Berkane — Cup 2020

AS Mansouria
AS Mansouria
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Renaissance Berkane
Renaissance Berkaneadvanced
7/7/2022CupCup · Quarter-finalsStade Municipal Mansouria

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

AS Mansouria4%
×Draw24%
Renaissance Berkane72%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AS Mansouria
0.17
Renaissance Berkane
1.50

Renaissance Berkane creates 782% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 6 away

creates per match

AS Mansouria
0.33
Renaissance Berkane
1.67

allows per match

AS Mansouria
1.33
Renaissance Berkane
0.00

finishing

AS Mansouria+0.00on par
Renaissance Berkane+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Under
  • Under77
  • Over23

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

88%No
  • No88
  • Yes12

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AS Mansouria ↓

Renaissance Berkane →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–019%
0–128%
0–221%
0–311%
0–44%
1
1–03%
1–15%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–00%
2–10%
2–20%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (28%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
81%19%1.5
50%50%2.5
23%77%3.5
9%91%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

AS Mansouria or draw
28%
AS Mansouria or Renaissance Berkane
76%
Draw or Renaissance Berkane
96%

Winning margin

AS Mansouria wins by 2+
0%
Renaissance Berkane wins by 2+
40%

Team goals

AS Mansouria 1+ goals
16%
AS Mansouria 2+ goals
1%
AS Mansouria 3+ goals
0%
Renaissance Berkane 1+ goals
78%
Renaissance Berkane 2+ goals
44%
Renaissance Berkane 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

AS Mansouria (draw refunded)
5%
Renaissance Berkane (draw refunded)
95%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
7%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AS Mansouria at home — creates 0.33, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

Renaissance Berkane away — creates 1.67, concedes 0.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AS Mansouria attack 0.33 + Renaissance Berkane defence 0.00 → ÷2 → 0.17

Renaissance Berkane attack 1.67 + AS Mansouria defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

AS Mansouria scores more
4%
level
24%
Renaissance Berkane scores more
72%

Renaissance Berkane at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Renaissance Berkane will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: AS Mansouria 0–1 Renaissance Berkane

Renaissance Berkane beat AS Mansouria 1-0 in Cup on July 7, 2022.

The match was played at Stade Municipal Mansouria in El Mansouria.