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AS Mansouria vs Moghreb Tetouan — Cup 2020

AS Mansouria
AS Mansouriaadvanced
Pens
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Moghreb Tetouan
Moghreb Tetouan
3/12/2022CupCup · Round of 32Stade Municipal Mansouria

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

AS Mansouria5%
×Draw17%
Moghreb Tetouan77%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AS Mansouria
0.33
Moghreb Tetouan
2.00

Moghreb Tetouan creates 506% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

creates per match

AS Mansouria
0.33
Moghreb Tetouan
2.67

allows per match

AS Mansouria
1.33
Moghreb Tetouan
0.33

finishing

AS Mansouria+0.00on par
Moghreb Tetouan+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

76%No
  • No76
  • Yes24

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AS Mansouria ↓

Moghreb Tetouan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–120%
0–220%
0–313%
0–47%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–26%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–01%
2–11%
2–21%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (20%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

AS Mansouria or draw
23%
AS Mansouria or Moghreb Tetouan
83%
Draw or Moghreb Tetouan
95%

Winning margin

AS Mansouria wins by 2+
1%
Moghreb Tetouan wins by 2+
51%

Team goals

AS Mansouria 1+ goals
28%
AS Mansouria 2+ goals
4%
AS Mansouria 3+ goals
0%
Moghreb Tetouan 1+ goals
86%
Moghreb Tetouan 2+ goals
59%
Moghreb Tetouan 3+ goals
32%

Draw no bet

AS Mansouria (draw refunded)
6%
Moghreb Tetouan (draw refunded)
94%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
18%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AS Mansouria at home — creates 0.33, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

Moghreb Tetouan away — creates 2.67, concedes 0.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AS Mansouria attack 0.33 + Moghreb Tetouan defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.33

Moghreb Tetouan attack 2.67 + AS Mansouria defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 77%?"

AS Mansouria scores more
5%
level
17%
Moghreb Tetouan scores more
77%

Moghreb Tetouan at 77% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 77% does not mean "Moghreb Tetouan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: AS Mansouria vs Moghreb Tetouan

AS Mansouria and Moghreb Tetouan drew 0-0 in Cup on March 12, 2022.

The match was played at Stade Municipal Mansouria in El Mansouria.