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AS Kigali vs Rayon Sports — National Soccer League 2019

AS Kigali
AS Kigali
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Rayon Sports
Rayon Sports
12/14/2024National Soccer LeagueNational Soccer League · Round 13Kigali Pelé Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 97+ matches

AS Kigali37%
×Draw30%
Rayon Sports33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AS Kigali
1.09
Rayon Sports
1.02

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 97 home / 97 away

creates per match

AS Kigali
1.25
Rayon Sports
1.24

allows per match

AS Kigali
0.81
Rayon Sports
0.93

finishing

AS Kigali+0.00on par
Rayon Sports+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AS Kigali ↓

Rayon Sports →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

AS Kigali or draw
67%
AS Kigali or Rayon Sports
70%
Draw or Rayon Sports
63%

Winning margin

AS Kigali wins by 2+
15%
Rayon Sports wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

AS Kigali 1+ goals
66%
AS Kigali 2+ goals
30%
AS Kigali 3+ goals
10%
Rayon Sports 1+ goals
64%
Rayon Sports 2+ goals
27%
Rayon Sports 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

AS Kigali (draw refunded)
53%
Rayon Sports (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AS Kigali at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.81 · 97 matches

Rayon Sports away — creates 1.24, concedes 0.93 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AS Kigali attack 1.25 + Rayon Sports defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.09

Rayon Sports attack 1.24 + AS Kigali defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

AS Kigali scores more
37%
level
30%
Rayon Sports scores more
33%

AS Kigali at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "AS Kigali will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: AS Kigali vs Rayon Sports

Rayon Sports beat AS Kigali 3-1 in National Soccer League on December 14, 2024.

The match was played at Kigali Pelé Stadium in Kigali.