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AS Kigali vs Gasogi United — National Soccer League 2019

AS Kigali
AS Kigali
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Gasogi United
Gasogi United
4/24/2026National Soccer LeagueNational Soccer League · Group Stage

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 97+ matches

AS Kigali45%
×Draw29%
Gasogi United26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AS Kigali
1.23
Gasogi United
0.87

AS Kigali creates 41% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 97 away

creates per match

AS Kigali
1.25
Gasogi United
0.93

allows per match

AS Kigali
0.81
Gasogi United
1.21

finishing

AS Kigali+0.00on par
Gasogi United+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AS Kigali ↓

Gasogi United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

AS Kigali or draw
74%
AS Kigali or Gasogi United
71%
Draw or Gasogi United
55%

Winning margin

AS Kigali wins by 2+
20%
Gasogi United wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

AS Kigali 1+ goals
71%
AS Kigali 2+ goals
35%
AS Kigali 3+ goals
13%
Gasogi United 1+ goals
58%
Gasogi United 2+ goals
22%
Gasogi United 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

AS Kigali (draw refunded)
63%
Gasogi United (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AS Kigali at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.81 · 97 matches

Gasogi United away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.21 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AS Kigali attack 1.25 + Gasogi United defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.23

Gasogi United attack 0.93 + AS Kigali defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

AS Kigali scores more
45%
level
29%
Gasogi United scores more
26%

AS Kigali at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "AS Kigali will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: AS Kigali vs Gasogi United

AS Kigali and Gasogi United drew 0-0 in National Soccer League on April 24, 2026.