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AS Kigali vs Etoile de l'Est — National Soccer League 2019

AS Kigali
AS Kigali
FT
0 – 1
Etoile de l'Est
Etoile de l'Est
3/1/2024National Soccer LeagueNational Soccer League · Round 23Kigali Pelé Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

AS Kigali54%
×Draw27%
Etoile de l'Est20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AS Kigali
1.46
Etoile de l'Est
0.76

AS Kigali creates 92% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 30 away

creates per match

AS Kigali
1.25
Etoile de l'Est
0.70

allows per match

AS Kigali
0.81
Etoile de l'Est
1.67

finishing

AS Kigali+0.00on par
Etoile de l'Est+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AS Kigali ↓

Etoile de l'Est →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

AS Kigali or draw
80%
AS Kigali or Etoile de l'Est
73%
Draw or Etoile de l'Est
46%

Winning margin

AS Kigali wins by 2+
27%
Etoile de l'Est wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

AS Kigali 1+ goals
77%
AS Kigali 2+ goals
43%
AS Kigali 3+ goals
18%
Etoile de l'Est 1+ goals
53%
Etoile de l'Est 2+ goals
18%
Etoile de l'Est 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

AS Kigali (draw refunded)
73%
Etoile de l'Est (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AS Kigali at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.81 · 97 matches

Etoile de l'Est away — creates 0.70, concedes 1.67 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AS Kigali attack 1.25 + Etoile de l'Est defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.46

Etoile de l'Est attack 0.70 + AS Kigali defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

AS Kigali scores more
54%
level
27%
Etoile de l'Est scores more
20%

AS Kigali at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "AS Kigali will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: AS Kigali vs Etoile de l'Est

Etoile de l'Est beat AS Kigali 1-0 in National Soccer League on March 1, 2024.

The match was played at Kigali Pelé Stadium in Kigali.