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AS Kasserine vs Moknine — Ligue 2 2020

AS Kasserine
AS Kasserine
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Moknine
Moknine
I. Troudi 47'
M. Hichri 83'
2/27/2026Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 19

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

AS Kasserine56%
×Draw26%
Moknine18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AS Kasserine
1.52
Moknine
0.74

AS Kasserine creates 105% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 49 away

creates per match

AS Kasserine
1.48
Moknine
0.90

allows per match

AS Kasserine
0.58
Moknine
1.57

finishing

AS Kasserine+0.00on par
Moknine+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AS Kasserine ↓

Moknine →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

AS Kasserine or draw
82%
AS Kasserine or Moknine
74%
Draw or Moknine
44%

Winning margin

AS Kasserine wins by 2+
29%
Moknine wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

AS Kasserine 1+ goals
78%
AS Kasserine 2+ goals
45%
AS Kasserine 3+ goals
20%
Moknine 1+ goals
52%
Moknine 2+ goals
17%
Moknine 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

AS Kasserine (draw refunded)
75%
Moknine (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AS Kasserine at home — creates 1.48, concedes 0.58 · 31 matches

Moknine away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.57 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AS Kasserine attack 1.48 + Moknine defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.52

Moknine attack 0.90 + AS Kasserine defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

AS Kasserine scores more
56%
level
26%
Moknine scores more
18%

AS Kasserine at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "AS Kasserine will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

47'
I. Troudi
83'
M. Hichri

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

AS Kasserine 1 – 1 Moknine

AS Kasserine and Moknine drew 1-1 in Ligue 2 on February 27, 2026.

Goals: I. Troudi (47'), M. Hichri (83').