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AS Kasserine vs JS Kairouanaise — Ligue 2 2020

AS Kasserine
AS Kasserine
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
JS Kairouanaise
JS Kairouanaise
3/1/2025Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 17Stade de Kasserine

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

AS Kasserine49%
×Draw30%
JS Kairouanaise22%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AS Kasserine
1.24
JS Kairouanaise
0.72

AS Kasserine creates 72% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 45 away

creates per match

AS Kasserine
1.48
JS Kairouanaise
0.87

allows per match

AS Kasserine
0.58
JS Kairouanaise
1.00

finishing

AS Kasserine+0.00on par
JS Kairouanaise+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AS Kasserine ↓

JS Kairouanaise →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

AS Kasserine or draw
78%
AS Kasserine or JS Kairouanaise
70%
Draw or JS Kairouanaise
51%

Winning margin

AS Kasserine wins by 2+
22%
JS Kairouanaise wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

AS Kasserine 1+ goals
71%
AS Kasserine 2+ goals
35%
AS Kasserine 3+ goals
13%
JS Kairouanaise 1+ goals
51%
JS Kairouanaise 2+ goals
16%
JS Kairouanaise 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

AS Kasserine (draw refunded)
69%
JS Kairouanaise (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AS Kasserine at home — creates 1.48, concedes 0.58 · 31 matches

JS Kairouanaise away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.00 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AS Kasserine attack 1.48 + JS Kairouanaise defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.24

JS Kairouanaise attack 0.87 + AS Kasserine defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

AS Kasserine scores more
49%
level
30%
JS Kairouanaise scores more
22%

AS Kasserine at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "AS Kasserine will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 2: AS Kasserine 0–0 JS Kairouanaise

AS Kasserine and JS Kairouanaise drew 0-0 in Ligue 2 on March 1, 2025.

The match was played at Stade de Kasserine in Kasserine.