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AS Kasserine vs Jerba — Ligue 2 2020

AS Kasserine
AS Kasserine
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Jerba
Jerba
N. Dalhoumi 31' (pen)
12/8/2024Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 8Stade de Kasserine

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

AS Kasserine55%
×Draw28%
Jerba16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AS Kasserine
1.35
Jerba
0.59

AS Kasserine creates 129% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 48 away

creates per match

AS Kasserine
1.48
Jerba
0.60

allows per match

AS Kasserine
0.58
Jerba
1.23

finishing

AS Kasserine+0.00on par
Jerba+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AS Kasserine ↓

Jerba →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–18%
0–23%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

AS Kasserine or draw
84%
AS Kasserine or Jerba
72%
Draw or Jerba
45%

Winning margin

AS Kasserine wins by 2+
27%
Jerba wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

AS Kasserine 1+ goals
74%
AS Kasserine 2+ goals
39%
AS Kasserine 3+ goals
15%
Jerba 1+ goals
45%
Jerba 2+ goals
12%
Jerba 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

AS Kasserine (draw refunded)
77%
Jerba (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AS Kasserine at home — creates 1.48, concedes 0.58 · 31 matches

Jerba away — creates 0.60, concedes 1.23 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AS Kasserine attack 1.48 + Jerba defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.35

Jerba attack 0.60 + AS Kasserine defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 0.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

AS Kasserine scores more
55%
level
28%
Jerba scores more
16%

AS Kasserine at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "AS Kasserine will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

31'
N. DalhoumiPenalty
90+5'
H. Letifi

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 2: AS Kasserine 1–0 Jerba

AS Kasserine beat Jerba 1-0 in Ligue 2 on December 8, 2024.

Goals: N. Dalhoumi (31' pen).

The match was played at Stade de Kasserine in Kasserine.