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AS Kasserine vs EGS Gafsa — Ligue 2 2020

AS Kasserine
AS Kasserine
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
EGS Gafsa
EGS Gafsa
10/19/2025Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

AS Kasserine52%
×Draw28%
EGS Gafsa20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AS Kasserine
1.38
EGS Gafsa
0.73

AS Kasserine creates 89% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 36 away

creates per match

AS Kasserine
1.48
EGS Gafsa
0.89

allows per match

AS Kasserine
0.58
EGS Gafsa
1.28

finishing

AS Kasserine+0.00on par
EGS Gafsa+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AS Kasserine ↓

EGS Gafsa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

AS Kasserine or draw
80%
AS Kasserine or EGS Gafsa
72%
Draw or EGS Gafsa
48%

Winning margin

AS Kasserine wins by 2+
26%
EGS Gafsa wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

AS Kasserine 1+ goals
75%
AS Kasserine 2+ goals
40%
AS Kasserine 3+ goals
16%
EGS Gafsa 1+ goals
52%
EGS Gafsa 2+ goals
17%
EGS Gafsa 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

AS Kasserine (draw refunded)
73%
EGS Gafsa (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AS Kasserine at home — creates 1.48, concedes 0.58 · 31 matches

EGS Gafsa away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.28 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AS Kasserine attack 1.48 + EGS Gafsa defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.38

EGS Gafsa attack 0.89 + AS Kasserine defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

AS Kasserine scores more
52%
level
28%
EGS Gafsa scores more
20%

AS Kasserine at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "AS Kasserine will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 2: AS Kasserine 2–1 EGS Gafsa

AS Kasserine beat EGS Gafsa 2-1 in Ligue 2 on October 19, 2025.