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AS Kasserine vs AS Agareb — Ligue 2 2020

AS Kasserine
AS Kasserine
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
AS Agareb
AS Agareb
5/23/2025Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 26Stade de Kasserine

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

AS Kasserine60%
×Draw26%
AS Agareb14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AS Kasserine
1.51
AS Agareb
0.58

AS Kasserine creates 160% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 26 away

creates per match

AS Kasserine
1.48
AS Agareb
0.58

allows per match

AS Kasserine
0.58
AS Agareb
1.54

finishing

AS Kasserine+0.00on par
AS Agareb+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AS Kasserine ↓

AS Agareb →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–17%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

AS Kasserine or draw
86%
AS Kasserine or AS Agareb
74%
Draw or AS Agareb
40%

Winning margin

AS Kasserine wins by 2+
32%
AS Agareb wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

AS Kasserine 1+ goals
78%
AS Kasserine 2+ goals
44%
AS Kasserine 3+ goals
19%
AS Agareb 1+ goals
44%
AS Agareb 2+ goals
12%
AS Agareb 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

AS Kasserine (draw refunded)
81%
AS Agareb (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AS Kasserine at home — creates 1.48, concedes 0.58 · 31 matches

AS Agareb away — creates 0.58, concedes 1.54 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AS Kasserine attack 1.48 + AS Agareb defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.51

AS Agareb attack 0.58 + AS Kasserine defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 0.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

AS Kasserine scores more
60%
level
26%
AS Agareb scores more
14%

AS Kasserine at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "AS Kasserine will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 2: AS Kasserine 2–1 AS Agareb

AS Kasserine beat AS Agareb 2-1 in Ligue 2 on May 23, 2025.

The match was played at Stade de Kasserine in Kasserine.