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Mzuni vs Ntopwa — Super League 2026

Mzuni
Mzuni
FT
2 – 1
Ntopwa
Ntopwa
5/1/2021Super LeagueSuper League · Round 11Mzuzu Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Mzuni46%
×Draw28%
Ntopwa27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mzuni
1.34
Ntopwa
0.95

Mzuni creates 41% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 16 away

creates per match

Mzuni
0.68
Ntopwa
0.69

allows per match

Mzuni
1.21
Ntopwa
2.00

finishing

Mzuni+0.00on par
Ntopwa+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mzuni ↓

Ntopwa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Mzuni or draw
73%
Mzuni or Ntopwa
72%
Draw or Ntopwa
54%

Winning margin

Mzuni wins by 2+
21%
Ntopwa wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Mzuni 1+ goals
74%
Mzuni 2+ goals
39%
Mzuni 3+ goals
15%
Ntopwa 1+ goals
61%
Ntopwa 2+ goals
25%
Ntopwa 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Mzuni (draw refunded)
63%
Ntopwa (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mzuni at home — creates 0.68, concedes 1.21 · 19 matches

Ntopwa away — creates 0.69, concedes 2.00 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mzuni attack 0.68 + Ntopwa defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.34

Ntopwa attack 0.69 + Mzuni defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Mzuni scores more
46%
level
28%
Ntopwa scores more
27%

Mzuni at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Mzuni will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Mzuni 2–1 Ntopwa

Mzuni beat Ntopwa 2-1 in Super League on May 1, 2021.

The match was played at Mzuzu Stadium in Mzuzu.