AS Jeunesse Esch 1–1 Wiltz: Result & Stats

AS Jeunesse Esch

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Wiltz

4/19/2025

National Division · Round 25Stade de la Frontière

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

AS Jeunesse Esch49%

×Draw23%

Wiltz28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AS Jeunesse EschExpected goals in this matchWiltz

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

1.27

AS Jeunesse Esch

1.77

Wiltz

1.27

AS Jeunesse Esch creates 39% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 75 away

1.62

creates per match

1.31

1.23

allows per match

1.92

creates per match

AS Jeunesse Esch

1.62

Wiltz

1.31

allows per match

AS Jeunesse Esch

1.23

Wiltz

1.92

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

AS Jeunesse Esch+0.00on par

Wiltz+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AS Jeunesse Esch ↓

Wiltz →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

AS Jeunesse Esch or draw

72%

AS Jeunesse Esch or Wiltz

77%

Draw or Wiltz

51%

Winning margin

AS Jeunesse Esch wins by 2+

27%

Wiltz wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

AS Jeunesse Esch 1+ goals

83%

AS Jeunesse Esch 2+ goals

53%

AS Jeunesse Esch 3+ goals

26%

Wiltz 1+ goals

72%

Wiltz 2+ goals

36%

Wiltz 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

AS Jeunesse Esch (draw refunded)

64%

Wiltz (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AS Jeunesse Esch at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.23 · 112 matches

Wiltz away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.92 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AS Jeunesse Esch attack 1.62 + Wiltz defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.77

Wiltz attack 1.31 + AS Jeunesse Esch defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

AS Jeunesse Esch scores more

49%

level

23%

Wiltz scores more

28%

AS Jeunesse Esch at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "AS Jeunesse Esch will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff