AS Jeunesse Esch vs US Mondorf-les-bains — National Division 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 112+ matches
AS Jeunesse Esch43%
US Mondorf-les-bains32%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
AS Jeunesse Esch creates 19% more chances
Season form · 112 home / 112 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over55
- Under45
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes58
- No42
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
AS Jeunesse Esch ↓
Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
AS Jeunesse Esch at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.23 · 112 matches
US Mondorf-les-bains away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.51 · 112 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
AS Jeunesse Esch attack 1.62 + US Mondorf-les-bains defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.56
US Mondorf-les-bains attack 1.39 + AS Jeunesse Esch defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.31
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 43%?"
AS Jeunesse Esch at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 43% does not mean "AS Jeunesse Esch will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Atert Bissen
FC Differdange 03US Mondorf-les-bains
UNA Strassen
F91 DudelangeAS Jeunesse Esch
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
UN Kaerjeng 97
US Hostert
Victoria Rosport
Progres Niederkorn
Swift Hesperange
Jeunesse Canach
Mamer
Union Titus Petange
Rodange 91
Résidence Walferdange
WiltzIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
AS Jeunesse Esch host US Mondorf-les-bains on Sunday, 4 August 2024 at 14:00. The match is part of the National Division 2018/2019 season.
AS Jeunesse Esch 1 – 1 US Mondorf-les-bains
AS Jeunesse Esch and US Mondorf-les-bains drew 1-1 in National Division on August 4, 2024.
The match was played at Stade de la Frontière in Esch-sur-Alzette.