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AS Jeunesse Esch vs UN Kaerjeng 97 — National Division 2018

AS Jeunesse Esch
AS Jeunesse Esch
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
UN Kaerjeng 97
UN Kaerjeng 97
3/10/2024National DivisionNational Division · Round 20Stade de la Frontière

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

AS Jeunesse Esch49%
×Draw24%
UN Kaerjeng 9727%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AS Jeunesse Esch
1.67
UN Kaerjeng 97
1.16

AS Jeunesse Esch creates 44% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 45 away

creates per match

AS Jeunesse Esch
1.62
UN Kaerjeng 97
1.09

allows per match

AS Jeunesse Esch
1.23
UN Kaerjeng 97
1.71

finishing

AS Jeunesse Esch+0.00on par
UN Kaerjeng 97+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AS Jeunesse Esch ↓

UN Kaerjeng 97 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

AS Jeunesse Esch or draw
73%
AS Jeunesse Esch or UN Kaerjeng 97
76%
Draw or UN Kaerjeng 97
51%

Winning margin

AS Jeunesse Esch wins by 2+
26%
UN Kaerjeng 97 wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

AS Jeunesse Esch 1+ goals
81%
AS Jeunesse Esch 2+ goals
50%
AS Jeunesse Esch 3+ goals
23%
UN Kaerjeng 97 1+ goals
69%
UN Kaerjeng 97 2+ goals
32%
UN Kaerjeng 97 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

AS Jeunesse Esch (draw refunded)
65%
UN Kaerjeng 97 (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AS Jeunesse Esch at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.23 · 112 matches

UN Kaerjeng 97 away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.71 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AS Jeunesse Esch attack 1.62 + UN Kaerjeng 97 defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.67

UN Kaerjeng 97 attack 1.09 + AS Jeunesse Esch defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

AS Jeunesse Esch scores more
49%
level
24%
UN Kaerjeng 97 scores more
27%

AS Jeunesse Esch at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "AS Jeunesse Esch will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: AS Jeunesse Esch vs UN Kaerjeng 97

AS Jeunesse Esch beat UN Kaerjeng 97 3-0 in National Division on March 10, 2024.

The match was played at Stade de la Frontière in Esch-sur-Alzette.