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AS Gabes vs Sporting Ben Arous — Ligue 2 2020

AS Gabes
AS Gabes
FT
2 – 1
Sporting Ben Arous
Sporting Ben Arous
1/31/2021Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 1Stade de Zrig

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

AS Gabes57%
×Draw28%
Sporting Ben Arous15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AS Gabes
1.38
Sporting Ben Arous
0.55

AS Gabes creates 151% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 46 away

creates per match

AS Gabes
1.49
Sporting Ben Arous
0.54

allows per match

AS Gabes
0.57
Sporting Ben Arous
1.26

finishing

AS Gabes+0.00on par
Sporting Ben Arous+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

68%No
  • No68
  • Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AS Gabes ↓

Sporting Ben Arous →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–18%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–020%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

AS Gabes or draw
85%
AS Gabes or Sporting Ben Arous
72%
Draw or Sporting Ben Arous
43%

Winning margin

AS Gabes wins by 2+
29%
Sporting Ben Arous wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

AS Gabes 1+ goals
75%
AS Gabes 2+ goals
40%
AS Gabes 3+ goals
16%
Sporting Ben Arous 1+ goals
42%
Sporting Ben Arous 2+ goals
11%
Sporting Ben Arous 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

AS Gabes (draw refunded)
80%
Sporting Ben Arous (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AS Gabes at home — creates 1.49, concedes 0.57 · 35 matches

Sporting Ben Arous away — creates 0.54, concedes 1.26 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AS Gabes attack 1.49 + Sporting Ben Arous defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.38

Sporting Ben Arous attack 0.54 + AS Gabes defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

AS Gabes scores more
57%
level
28%
Sporting Ben Arous scores more
15%

AS Gabes at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "AS Gabes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 2: AS Gabes 2–1 Sporting Ben Arous

AS Gabes beat Sporting Ben Arous 2-1 in Ligue 2 on January 31, 2021.

The match was played at Stade de Zrig in Gabès.