AS Gabes 2–0 Rogba Tataouine: Result & Stats

AS Gabes

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Rogba Tataouine

R. Mzoughi 90+1'

R. Sebai 45'

4/27/2023

Ligue 2 · Round 17Stade de Zrig

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

AS Gabes60%

×Draw26%

Rogba Tataouine14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AS GabesExpected goals in this matchRogba Tataouine

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

0.56

AS Gabes

1.50

Rogba Tataouine

0.56

AS Gabes creates 168% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 36 away

1.49

creates per match

0.56

0.57

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

AS Gabes

1.49

Rogba Tataouine

0.56

allows per match

AS Gabes

0.57

Rogba Tataouine

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

AS Gabes+0.00on par

Rogba Tataouine+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No67
Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AS Gabes ↓

Rogba Tataouine →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–17%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–019%

1–111%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

AS Gabes or draw

86%

AS Gabes or Rogba Tataouine

74%

Draw or Rogba Tataouine

40%

Winning margin

AS Gabes wins by 2+

32%

Rogba Tataouine wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

AS Gabes 1+ goals

78%

AS Gabes 2+ goals

44%

AS Gabes 3+ goals

19%

Rogba Tataouine 1+ goals

43%

Rogba Tataouine 2+ goals

11%

Rogba Tataouine 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

AS Gabes (draw refunded)

81%

Rogba Tataouine (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

23%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AS Gabes at home — creates 1.49, concedes 0.57 · 35 matches

Rogba Tataouine away — creates 0.56, concedes 1.50 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AS Gabes attack 1.49 + Rogba Tataouine defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.50

Rogba Tataouine attack 0.56 + AS Gabes defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

AS Gabes scores more

60%

level

26%

Rogba Tataouine scores more

14%

AS Gabes at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "AS Gabes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45'

R. Sebai

90+1'

R. Mzoughi

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff