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AS Gabes vs Kalaâ Sport — Ligue 2 2020

AS Gabes
AS Gabes
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Kalaâ Sport
Kalaâ Sport
A. Jouini 45+2'
4/10/2022Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Promotion Round - 2Stade 2 Mars

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

AS Gabes58%
×Draw26%
Kalaâ Sport16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AS Gabes
1.50
Kalaâ Sport
0.64

AS Gabes creates 134% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 61 away

creates per match

AS Gabes
1.49
Kalaâ Sport
0.70

allows per match

AS Gabes
0.57
Kalaâ Sport
1.51

finishing

AS Gabes+0.00on par
Kalaâ Sport+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AS Gabes ↓

Kalaâ Sport →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–18%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

AS Gabes or draw
84%
AS Gabes or Kalaâ Sport
74%
Draw or Kalaâ Sport
42%

Winning margin

AS Gabes wins by 2+
30%
Kalaâ Sport wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

AS Gabes 1+ goals
78%
AS Gabes 2+ goals
44%
AS Gabes 3+ goals
19%
Kalaâ Sport 1+ goals
47%
Kalaâ Sport 2+ goals
14%
Kalaâ Sport 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

AS Gabes (draw refunded)
79%
Kalaâ Sport (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AS Gabes at home — creates 1.49, concedes 0.57 · 35 matches

Kalaâ Sport away — creates 0.70, concedes 1.51 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AS Gabes attack 1.49 + Kalaâ Sport defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.50

Kalaâ Sport attack 0.70 + AS Gabes defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

AS Gabes scores more
58%
level
26%
Kalaâ Sport scores more
16%

AS Gabes at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "AS Gabes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45+2'
A. Jouini

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: AS Gabes vs Kalaâ Sport

Kalaâ Sport beat AS Gabes 1-0 in Ligue 2 on April 10, 2022.

Goals: A. Jouini (45+2').

The match was played at Stade 2 Mars in Sfax.