AS Gabes 0–2 JS Kairouanaise: Result & Stats

AS Gabes

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

JS Kairouanaise

M. Zairi 89'

Y. Azib 87'

5/3/2026

League #202 · Round 28Gabes Municipal Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

AS Gabes58%

×Draw27%

JS Kairouanaise15%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AS GabesExpected goals in this matchJS Kairouanaise

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

0.60

AS Gabes

1.46

JS Kairouanaise

0.60

AS Gabes creates 143% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 64 away

1.25

creates per match

0.58

0.63

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

AS Gabes

1.25

JS Kairouanaise

0.58

allows per match

AS Gabes

0.63

JS Kairouanaise

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

AS Gabes+0.00on par

JS Kairouanaise+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No65
Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AS Gabes ↓

JS Kairouanaise →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–18%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–019%

1–111%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

AS Gabes or draw

85%

AS Gabes or JS Kairouanaise

73%

Draw or JS Kairouanaise

42%

Winning margin

AS Gabes wins by 2+

30%

JS Kairouanaise wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

AS Gabes 1+ goals

77%

AS Gabes 2+ goals

43%

AS Gabes 3+ goals

18%

JS Kairouanaise 1+ goals

45%

JS Kairouanaise 2+ goals

12%

JS Kairouanaise 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

AS Gabes (draw refunded)

79%

JS Kairouanaise (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

23%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AS Gabes at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.63 · 8 matches

JS Kairouanaise away — creates 0.58, concedes 1.67 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AS Gabes attack 1.25 + JS Kairouanaise defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.46

JS Kairouanaise attack 0.58 + AS Gabes defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

AS Gabes scores more

58%

level

27%

JS Kairouanaise scores more

15%

AS Gabes at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "AS Gabes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

41'

76'

78'

85'

87'

Y. Azib

88'

89'

M. Zairi

AS

JS

16

5

21

15

99

⚽

7

18

27

33

26

29

8

32

23

18

5

30

99

20

7

25

29

Manager: Tareq Jaraya

AS Gabes substitutes

22Chouaya28Abdelkarim27Mechri21Agdavain26Touati13JmalFessi17Bechraoui

Manager: Ghazi Ghrairi

JS Kairouanaise substitutes

22Bejaoui30Fatnassi6Liouan10Zairi14Baklouti17Lakhder8Sallami20Dassakate24Hajji