AS Gabes 2–0 JS Kairouanaise: Result & Stats

AS Gabes

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

JS Kairouanaise

S. Mezlini 49'

A. Zouaghi 19'

11/5/2017

League #202 · Round 9Stade de Zrig (Gabès)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

AS Gabes53%

×Draw29%

JS Kairouanaise19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AS GabesExpected goals in this matchJS Kairouanaise

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

0.67

AS Gabes

1.33

JS Kairouanaise

0.67

AS Gabes creates 99% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 64 away

1.00

creates per match

0.58

0.75

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

AS Gabes

1.00

JS Kairouanaise

0.58

allows per match

AS Gabes

0.75

JS Kairouanaise

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

AS Gabes+0.00on par

JS Kairouanaise+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AS Gabes ↓

JS Kairouanaise →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–19%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

AS Gabes or draw

81%

AS Gabes or JS Kairouanaise

71%

Draw or JS Kairouanaise

47%

Winning margin

AS Gabes wins by 2+

25%

JS Kairouanaise wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

AS Gabes 1+ goals

74%

AS Gabes 2+ goals

38%

AS Gabes 3+ goals

15%

JS Kairouanaise 1+ goals

49%

JS Kairouanaise 2+ goals

15%

JS Kairouanaise 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

AS Gabes (draw refunded)

74%

JS Kairouanaise (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AS Gabes at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.75 · 16 matches

JS Kairouanaise away — creates 0.58, concedes 1.67 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AS Gabes attack 1.00 + JS Kairouanaise defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.33

JS Kairouanaise attack 0.58 + AS Gabes defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

AS Gabes scores more

53%

level

29%

JS Kairouanaise scores more

19%

AS Gabes at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "AS Gabes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'

A. Zouaghi

49'

S. Mezlini

AS

JS

⚽

⚽

Manager: M. Louhichi

Manager: J. Kadri

League #202: AS Gabes 2–0 JS Kairouanaise

AS Gabes beat JS Kairouanaise 2-0 in League #202 on November 5, 2017.

Goals: A. Zouaghi (19'), S. Mezlini (49').

The match was played at Stade de Zrig (Gabès).

AS Gabes vs JS Kairouanaise — League #202 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

League #202: AS Gabes 2–0 JS Kairouanaise